Summary
Key findings
- Double-shift schooling has at most a marginally negative effect on foundational literacy in public primary schools: under the tightest bounds, oral reading fluency scores are 0.007–0.018 SD lower than in single-shift schools, much smaller than the 0.12 SD gap found if school assignment is treated as random.
- The effect is larger in private high schools: students in double-shift schools are up to 7.2 percentage points less likely to pass both English and mathematics in the WASSCE and about 6 percentage points less likely to obtain five credits including both, with a larger effect on mathematics (up to 11.9 points) than English (up to 2.3 points).
- At primary level the negative effect is nearly three times greater for girls than for boys and largest in Grade 1; among private high schools it is negative in Region 1 (up to 12.4 percentage points lower chance of five credits) but slightly positive in Region 2.
- Converting private double-shift high schools to single shift would raise English and mathematics pass rates only from about 20% to 21.5%; converting public primary schools would raise reading-fluency scores by 5–13%. The harms are statistically significant but modest compared with the access to schooling that double-shifting provides, and greater gains may come from targeting private high schools.
Methodology & context
- Uses Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education data: the 2016 Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) for Grades 1–3 (2,180 pupils in public primary schools, from a nationally representative sample of 3,000 pupils in 181 schools) and West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) results for Grade 12 students in private high schools.
- Applies Manski and Pepper’s non-parametric bounds, tightened with weak, partially testable assumptions (monotone treatment selection and monotone treatment response), using household socio-economic status as a monotone instrumental variable for the primary-school analysis.
- Double-shifting covers nearly 50% of primary and almost 90% of high school enrolment in The Gambia; the high school analysis is limited to private schools because about 98% of public high school students attend double-shift schools, and in several cases the bounds do not rule out no effect.
Summary drafted with AI from the AFEP working paper and policy brief, and checked against them. See the full study for details.
Abstract
The double-shift schooling system, which groups students into morning and afternoon shifts, has been implemented in many developing countries as a cost-effective strategy to increase access to education. However, empirical evidence of its impact on learning outcomes is limited. This study aims to inform the ongoing policy debate about the trade-offs between increasing access and maintaining quality by examining how the double-shift system (DSS) affects learning outcomes in The Gambia. It applies Manski’s non-parametric bounds approach, relies on relatively weak and partially testable assumptions to further tighten the bounds, and uses students’ household socio-economic status as an instrumental variable. The study finds that the DSS has a marginally negative effect on foundational literacy and high school performance.